Not just a calendar — a decision tool. Live Polymarket + Kalshi odds and a Drop Readiness score on every forecast, a plan-around-this horizon, real adoption data on what builders actually run, plus cost, deprecation, and price-cliff alerts. Refreshed hourly, every source linked. Markets are signal, not stakes.
Your horizon as one agenda — what to evaluate, migrate, or re-budget, and when. The roadmap the labs don't publish, synthesized from release windows and lifecycle dates.
The ranked forecast — what the timeline shows, as a sortable board. One number per release, blended from market odds, intel recency, deadline proximity, and volume.
Competitors show the current benchmark leader. We also show the challenger in the forecast window expected to take the crown, and when.
Real usage from community model-routing traffic — the reality-check leaderboard scores can't give you. Directional developer adoption, not whole-market totals; share is relative to the most-used model.
Confirmed launches with the specs builders filter on — context window, pricing, license — plus a comparable cost tier, the cheapest option in each class (★), and a flag when a price hike or deprecation is scheduled.
| MODEL | PROVIDER | SHIPPED | TYPE | CONTEXT | PRICE IN / OUT | LICENSE |
|---|
Open-weight models with the VRAM to actually run them — estimated from parameters and quantization, sized on total params (MoE holds every expert in memory), at ~16K context. Estimates, ±~15%; real usage varies by context and runtime.
| MODEL | PARAMS | Q4_K_M | Q8_0 | FP16 | RUNS ON (Q4) |
|---|
Deprecations, sunset dates, and intro-pricing cliffs — each with the model to move to and how long you have. The intel labs bury in a changelog and every other tracker skips.
Internal names leak before model names do — from public model-catalog probes, exec accounts, and pre-release SKUs. We map each to the public model it likely becomes.
What changed last cycle, graded by evidence — Confirmed, Signal, or Speculation, strongest first. The chatter and changelog feeds link every dated source.
Editorial trackers can list rumored dates; none price them. We're the only forward timeline backed by live Polymarket + Kalshi odds and a Drop Readiness score.